Wednesday, 3 June 2009

European Election Predictor

Sorry for the lack of posting lately- I didn't realise it had been so long! Things have been pretty busy lately, but tomorrow's the big day.

I came across this interesting site on my travels. According to their spiel: is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament.

The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).

These updated predictions (after the launch on 7 April 2009) use new polling data and up-to-date information about which parties and coalitions will be standing in the elections. A new section has also been added to the website, on the overall analysis page, on the possible effect of low voter turnout on the predictions. The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.

They're predicting that the DUP, UCUNF and Sinn Féin will win seats in the north this year. Meanwhile in the south, they're saying that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will drop a seat apiece, Labour will gain two, Mary-Lou McDonald will hold onto her seat, and Kathy Sinnott will lose out in Munster.

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